Methodology
Report grades and calculation updated
Current inputs, persistence reference and grading changes.
Research index · October 21, 2026
Research and writing
Public forecasts, evaluation methods and notes from the lab.
Report · awaiting grade
Household expectations for unemployment
The October forecast awaits the official survey release.
Report · partial
Holiday spending before the result
Partial added October 18; the original miss remains visible.
Report · partial
August household spending
Within the published band; persistence was closer.
Report · miss
September consumer sentiment
The primary forecast missed under the registered rule.
Report · win
NRF back-to-school spending scorecard
Two frozen spending forecasts compared with the published outcome.
Writing
Is there a better way to validate synthetic data?
Jeffrey Mead’s column in Quirk’s.
Earlier notes
The May 2026 notes use an earlier evaluation design. Consult the current evaluation page and its linked methodology before citing a score.