Checked October 21, 2026

The Lewsearch Report

We publish forecasts before their named outcomes and grade them in public. Each issue retains its forecast, rule and resolution history.

Read the full Report

Eight issues in the record

2 wins · 2 partials
1 miss · 3 awaiting

As checked October 21, 2026. Only Issues count; Pulses are ungraded experiments. Partial was added after grading on October 18. The original misses remain on the issue pages.

The categorical council-outcome win uses a different design from the numerical forecasts below.

Figure 1 · Public forecast record

Published forecasts and outcomes

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Measure	Forecast	Published outcome	Grade
NRF back-to-school spending Issue 01 · July 7, 2026	$856.83 / $870.37	$863.86	Win
Michigan consumer sentiment Issue 05 · September 9, 2026	55.4 index points	47.8 index points	Miss
NY Fed household spending growth Issue 06 · September 15, 2026	4.9%	4.704714298%	Partial
Deloitte holiday spending Issue 07 · October 1, 2026	$1,589	$1,654	Partial

Numeric headline outcomes in the Report as checked October 21, 2026. Units differ across rows. Partial was added on October 18 after grading; the original misses for Issues 06 and 07 remain visible. The categorical Issue 02 win and three awaiting grades are listed in the full record. Values and grading rules are linked by row.